Steve Miller
Investor / business consultant located in the Oklahoma City area offering specialty services in the privatized weather industry.
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March 18th, 2012 -Willow, OK Tornado and Parent Supercell- SW Oklahoma
Despite this season’s over all lack of chase days for me there were still...
Uncle Chuck
I’ve never met Dr. Doswell but I’ve observed him be a jerk to enough people over the years to assume he’s a miserable, miserable old cuss.
Sat, May 18, 2013 - Vertical Velocity
A comparison of the GFS, NAM & RAP models initiated at 12z and output for 00z. Looks like they are in pretty decent agreement. 18z is coming in as I write. We’ll see what it does.
I’m laying pretty low until Monday regarding hitting the road to chase. I like the prospects and I REALLY like the fact that there will be fewer chasers out since it’s a work day. Maybe many of them will be tired of stepping on each other only to shoot pics and video of the same tornado from the same vantage point. Who knows.
The map above is as far out as I can see on the 4km NAM but I like it. 60hrs out though is still a wishcast and the placement and intensity of the storms depicted here WILL change as the event draws closer.
So, chasers, good luck out there today and tomorrow. Wear yourselves out and snag some tornadoes. Save one for me though.
Identified Flying Objects
Ever since I finished college and had the time and money, I’ve wanted to build some sort of something that will measure pressure, photograph and video extremely close to a tornado. Since I’m clearly never going to get around to it, I figured I’d write about it here and see if anyone is motivated by the prospects.
There have been some really good ideas and execution thus far. Ground probes, for example, carefully placed in the path of a tornado, have returned some of the most compelling video and data anyone has seen. The same can be said for the people who have sacrificed vehicles to make them withstand a small tornado.
I’m perplexed though by some of the other ideas that have been rather high-profile and quite expensive. Examples are RC airplanes and helicopters. I sit and scratch my head when I see someone with a ridiculous amount of intelligence take the time and spend the money to build something without ever taking into account the conditions in which the craft will be flown.
My build idea has always been to simply inflate a balloon and release it into the inflow with a payload attached. While steering and the speed at which the payload flies are strictly up to Mother Nature, the resulting extreme video and photos possible with this approach would be ridiculous; well, until the balloon is shredded by debris…
Equipment is much smaller now; lighter, more manageable. A payload with quite a bit of photographic, data collecting and communications capability, can be lifted by a small balloon. In fact, a 2lb payload can be lifted by a balloon the size of one you would see at a car dealership. These require only a medium-sized hydrogen or helium tank to be carried on-board in order to inflate on the fly.
A minimal rate of lift is easily calculated and methods exist regarding stabilization of the payload for quality imaging while in the air. Also, two-way satellite communication is now reasonable in cost and easiest for location of the unit after it falls.
So, next time you think you want to fly a helicopter, shoot a model rocket, or throw a baseball into a tornado, just go online, search “edge of space project”, buy yourself some electronics and get to work.
(note: NSSL releases balloons that have a radiosonde payload into storms. In fact several were sent up during the April 15, 2013 event in North Texas)
Storm Chasers Are Hideous News Gatherers - Yes or No?
Okay, so maybe it’s just social media as a whole, but since most everyone I follow is associated with the weather industry in some way, shape or form, that’s the demographic on which I’m focused.
Yesterday, like many severe weather days prior, armchair weather weenies from around the country nestled up to their respective keyboards and proceeded to deliver information to the masses. Their followership consists of people who see them as an authority. In many cases they are. Allow me to explain…
An opinion, everybody’s got one
In my opinion, there is one very good reason to follow a storm chaser or extreme weather enthusiast online and that’s for real-time breaking weather information. There are so many good sources online for ground truth content and not a lot of room for mis-interpretation by someone who halfway knows what they are doing. People who have immersed themselves in weather know where to go to find information during the meat of an event.
But…
Before and after a severe weather event, weather enthusiasts are mostly worthless.
Prior to the event they try to forecast where a storm will occur. Their determination of a target area is based on their interpretation of model/surface data. Interpretation of data varies depending on the knowledge level of the individual and/or the model they are referencing. It’s no secret that weather enthusiasts want extreme weather to happen. If one model brings a system in stronger, that’s the model with which they will target, regardless if there is a better solution available.
(This said, I know several storm chaser types who can forecast circles around operational or journalistic Meteorologists - so choose your sources wisely when it comes to forecasting)
Post-event there are two types of social play. You have individuals who will Facebook and Tweet about what they are hearing on online rebroadcasts of scanner traffic from an area affected by adverse weather. Again we are back at interpretation of what is being broadcast, as each area has different disaster protocols and jargon.
The other type of social hound regurgitates information from sources they believe are authorities on the matter. This is a dangerous endeavor given one’s authoritative source might be just some clown hunched over a laptop wearing his fingers to a nub copying text from his/her own “authoritative” source. I guess what I’m saying is, until an official source releases information, no one is to be believed 100%. The “official source” subject is for a different blog on a different day, but you’re pretty safe with gov’t officials working the event. Yes, they’re slow to report but what they DO report is solid.
In a nutshell
I guess what I’m saying here is, if a tornado just went through an area and emergency response is underway, taking to social media to announce total injuries or even fatalities as quickly as one can, solely based upon interpretation, is not terribly responsible. It’s insensitive and, in most cases, incorrect information that’s being relayed.
Regarding insensitivity: If you have ever been in an area fresh with the smells of wood and natural gas with people screaming and scurrying around, completely unable to comprehend what happened, you will see my point.
Regarding incorrect information: Consider your sources. Gaining exposure that ultimately translates into more followers is a pitiful reason for trying to be first to the internet with information.
Today was an interesting day of social media management for WDT. Generally David Moran handles our severe weather forecasting and a lot of the real-time coverage. This evening I ran the system and it was a hand-full, no doubt.
We posted 100+ Tweets and Facebook updates today as a company in an effort to cover severe weather while also showing our products in action during the event. It was a tweet on my personal account though that garnered the most single-post exposure and it was simply an on-the-fly retweet from Phil Price with the Fox affiliate in Tulsa, OK.
This goes to show that it’s impossible to tell, when creating content for the masses, exactly what product will fly off the shelves.
Thoughts are with those affected by severe weather this evening in north-central Texas.
It’s rainy and about 46 degrees outside but a weekend at the lake is a weekend at the lake and regardless the weather, a relaxing time must be had.
This is the Navonics app for iPhone. Pretty nice app I’ve had for about a year now. It’s a novelty for me as I’m familiar with the lake on which we run, and I have a fixed chart plotter onboard for primary mapping.
There are still regular updates to the app, features and coverage-wise. A little pricy on the iPad though at $50.
Probably a solid bet of you’re on an inland lake or river you’re unfamiliar with.
Two lonely pairs of sunglasses, a port hole & an outside temp of 45.6. This is my Saturday.
More rain for Oklahoma on Friday! This is a good thing as we still have quite a ways to go before we’re caught up (See Drought Monitor image). This appears to be an all day soaking event; hopefully enabling some opportunity for absorption.
And So It Begins… The April 17, 2013 Edition
The latest from NWS Norman on what could end up being quite the news-maker.
Oh, and here’s current radar with an explanation about the northern storm.
The day is here and the hype is high. Will it pan out? Jury is still out but things are certainly in favor of a big severe weather day across Oklahoma along the I-44 corridor and points southeast.
The above video is from the 4km NAM’s 12z run. This shows the evolution of storms according to that the model thinks will happen.
The 12km NAM is still not as aggressive with the northward travel of the warm front as the GFS so the focus should still remain in the box you wuld create if drawing a line from Wichita Falls, TX to Lawton, over to Ardmore, OK, and up to OKC for maximized tornado potential.
If I had to choose a city in Oklahoma for the best possible tornado potential, Rush Springs would be it.
Models are out the window now and the surface map is the key player.
Time for me to go vacuum out the storm shelter.
April 17, 2013 Forecast Graphics
I have posted below, several 4km NAM outputs for today’s 12z run regarding tomorrow evening, April 17th. It has been interesting to watch this system progress, model-wise, and will be more-so to watch it come to fruition.
Limiting factors for the OKC area are cloud cover and positioning of fronts: Will Central OK be in the warm sector during peak conditions?
The following two maps are simulated radar at 00z and 03z tomorrow. You can follow along at the site located here.
Clearly the 4km pops a few cells from Wichita Falls, TX up to the Weatherford, OK area (first map). The second map is a depiction of what radar might look like three hours later.
And here is CAPE at the time the 4km breaks out the first cell:
Finally, this is a depiction of the cold front as it passes through OKC right at 00z. Timing will be everything:
I’ve only shown ONE model output here and certainly there are many other products depicting different scenarios. Fact is, there are 45k+ square miles of area affected and over 3.5M individuals within this area per the Storm Prediction Center. Everyone within the area should be on alert.
Here’s the DAY2 outlook area:
Ensure you’re following me on Twitter @SteveMillerOK
Just now have had an opportunity to post this pic of me and Pete Rose from a couple weeks ago. Nice dude.
Seems there were more corporate hoax shenanigans than ever this year in recognition of April Fools Day. Google had several, some big name electronics companies jumped in the mix and for some reason, Scope did too. Glad they did as this ad is none of my favorites.
