Steve Miller
Investor / business consultant located in the Oklahoma City area.
If you like unique, timely weather maps, storm photos, and occasionally a correct forecast, give this page a "Like". I'll show you what your local weatherman probably wont.
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March 18th, 2012 -Willow, OK Tornado and Parent Supercell- SW Oklahoma
Despite this season’s over all lack of chase days for me there were still...
Thought it was interesting what State Farm put on the line item description for our settlement on my wife’s Charger that fell victim to the Moore tornado on May 20th. True statement. Just looks funny in text.
Her’s is the buried red car with the white SUV on the trunk and the Burgundy Silverado on the hood (East portico Moore Medical Center).
You know sometimes, even when I’m tweeting as a corporate entity, I have to scratch my head and give it some deep thought, then go ahead and state the obvious regardless how much of a jerk I sound like.
Disappointing Twitter Advertising Performance
Advertising via promoted tweet has really gone downhill in the past few months. When ads.twitter.com began last year, I had an entirely different performance level for the money. What happened?
Here’s how twitter did today with a promoted post about the severe weather in the upper midwest:
So basically, we had 27.7k impressions and 337 engagements for $236. These numbers do’t look terribly bad until you look at the actual clicks on the URL included in the promoted tweet:
27.7k impressions and only 106 clicks? Conversion rates for sales of the product promoted cannot be determined at this time (not that I could/would share that much info) but I can guess it’ll be status quo.
While $2+ per click is not a horrible rate, I can get much better exposure for our consumer products on Facebook, especially now that they have refined their demographic targeting. Twitter still wins hands-down in the targeting category. Facebook kills though when it comes to exposure for the money.
With a set monthly social media advertising budget, we’re looking for the most bang for the buck. Twitter is no longer where it’s at.
El Reno - One Lucky Town
Could El Reno have a tornado repellant? Possibly!
This is a pretty impressive map showing paths of F5 tornadoes that have passed near the city; one in 2011, the other in 2013.
In The Dark
This blog is brought to you by the 7.5kW Yamaha generator sitting right outside our garage door that has been running since 10pm Friday night.
Oklahoma is a regulated utility state. OG&E is our provider here in the OKC area and as I write I’m sure many men and women are working their asses off for the promise of restored power here.
As we were walking around the neighborhood this evening we visited briefly with a Moore police detective who lives up the street. He said police and fire personnel were briefed about how long it would take to restore power in Moore and surrounding areas. Our particular neighborhood is said to be back online Tuesday.
Now, I understand a disaster has occurred on the heels of a previous disaster. Infrastructure has been compromised and this takes time to fix.
I’m angry though, as a customer of OG&E, that I cannot get this same information from the company that I get from the cop up the street.
I consider this a major customer service failure.
OG&E knows exactly when a crew is scheduled to tend to a specific area and can ballpark when services should be back online. This information, properly communicated to their customer base, would allow for proper planning.
Security of property, food spoilage, pet health, and overall departure from normalcy are just a few things going without power entails.
Knowing now that we’ll likely not have power until Tuesday helps us plan our week. For everyone else in the area, they’ll continue to sit in the dark thinking that any minute the power might come back on.
5-31-13 Severe Weather Potential
While today looks like a pretty crazy weather day, with potential of severe storms and possibly tornadoes near the OKC metro area, tomorrow (Friday the 31st) is absolutely nuts. This is, of course, based on current model data and that data will change.
I’ve provided three maps below that are in increments of one hour starting at around 5pm. This is what the 4km NAM believes composite reflectivity will look like:
So, here’s your head’s up. Make sure you are following me @SteveMillerOK on Twitter and Facebook for updates and cool maps.
Disaster Marketing
I have been astounded by the number of marketing messages piggybacking severe weather disasters that have occurred in Oklahoma in the past week.
State Farm, Farmers, and Allstate have bought countless radio spots to tell us, with an authoritative public broadcast message approach, that they are mobilized in our state working claims; reminding us they are the best at what they do.
In addition, I’ve received at least ten emails from financial institutions I’m involved with, none of which offered anything incredible to disaster victims. MidFirst Bank offered a free box of checks so I guess that’s something.
Discover and other cards simply provided their phone number to remind us they are still here. In fact, one credit card offered to send me checks I can use against my credit account. Of course regular rates apply. Thanks a ton.
The best “disaster deal” was from AT&T who will waive data and texting fees for this month. I have unlimited data and texting but many do not and are probably appreciative.
The concept of reaching out to customers in the name of marketing immediately following a disaster is nothing new. A quick reevaluation by these companies regarding what they are actually offering their customers might behoove them.
Say, for example, Discover. Rather than make it more convenient for me to spend money at a high monthly revolving interest rate, how about you send three checks that will bypass the interest? What about announcing donations made online to charity NEVER collect interest?
Now THAT would be true cause-related marketing.
The red vehicle with the gray vehicle on top of it (to the left of the bright red truck) appears to be my wife’s Charger SRT8.
It was under a canopy at Moore Medical Center (top pic).
This is a map and list of tornadoes since 1950 which the National Weather Service has rated F5 (before 2007) or EF5 (equivalent, 2007 onward, the most intense damage category on the Fujita andEnhanced Fujita damage scales. The tornadoes are numbered in the order they happened since 1950; so the numbers run from the bottom up.
May 20, 2013
Newcastle-Moore Tornado
NWS Forecast Office Norman
Uncle Chuck
I’ve never met Dr. Doswell but I’ve observed him be a jerk to enough people over the years to assume he’s a miserable, miserable old cuss.
Sat, May 18, 2013 - Vertical Velocity
A comparison of the GFS, NAM & RAP models initiated at 12z and output for 00z. Looks like they are in pretty decent agreement. 18z is coming in as I write. We’ll see what it does.
I’m laying pretty low until Monday regarding hitting the road to chase. I like the prospects and I REALLY like the fact that there will be fewer chasers out since it’s a work day. Maybe many of them will be tired of stepping on each other only to shoot pics and video of the same tornado from the same vantage point. Who knows.
The map above is as far out as I can see on the 4km NAM but I like it. 60hrs out though is still a wishcast and the placement and intensity of the storms depicted here WILL change as the event draws closer.
So, chasers, good luck out there today and tomorrow. Wear yourselves out and snag some tornadoes. Save one for me though.
Identified Flying Objects
Ever since I finished college and had the time and money, I’ve wanted to build some sort of something that will measure pressure, photograph and video extremely close to a tornado. Since I’m clearly never going to get around to it, I figured I’d write about it here and see if anyone is motivated by the prospects.
There have been some really good ideas and execution thus far. Ground probes, for example, carefully placed in the path of a tornado, have returned some of the most compelling video and data anyone has seen. The same can be said for the people who have sacrificed vehicles to make them withstand a small tornado.
I’m perplexed though by some of the other ideas that have been rather high-profile and quite expensive. Examples are RC airplanes and helicopters. I sit and scratch my head when I see someone with a ridiculous amount of intelligence take the time and spend the money to build something without ever taking into account the conditions in which the craft will be flown.
My build idea has always been to simply inflate a balloon and release it into the inflow with a payload attached. While steering and the speed at which the payload flies are strictly up to Mother Nature, the resulting extreme video and photos possible with this approach would be ridiculous; well, until the balloon is shredded by debris…
Equipment is much smaller now; lighter, more manageable. A payload with quite a bit of photographic, data collecting and communications capability, can be lifted by a small balloon. In fact, a 2lb payload can be lifted by a balloon the size of one you would see at a car dealership. These require only a medium-sized hydrogen or helium tank to be carried on-board in order to inflate on the fly.
A minimal rate of lift is easily calculated and methods exist regarding stabilization of the payload for quality imaging while in the air. Also, two-way satellite communication is now reasonable in cost and easiest for location of the unit after it falls.
So, next time you think you want to fly a helicopter, shoot a model rocket, or throw a baseball into a tornado, just go online, search “edge of space project”, buy yourself some electronics and get to work.
(note: NSSL releases balloons that have a radiosonde payload into storms. In fact several were sent up during the April 15, 2013 event in North Texas)
Storm Chasers Are Hideous News Gatherers - Yes or No?
Okay, so maybe it’s just social media as a whole, but since most everyone I follow is associated with the weather industry in some way, shape or form, that’s the demographic on which I’m focused.
Yesterday, like many severe weather days prior, armchair weather weenies from around the country nestled up to their respective keyboards and proceeded to deliver information to the masses. Their followership consists of people who see them as an authority. In many cases they are. Allow me to explain…
An opinion, everybody’s got one
In my opinion, there is one very good reason to follow a storm chaser or extreme weather enthusiast online and that’s for real-time breaking weather information. There are so many good sources online for ground truth content and not a lot of room for mis-interpretation by someone who halfway knows what they are doing. People who have immersed themselves in weather know where to go to find information during the meat of an event.
But…
Before and after a severe weather event, weather enthusiasts are mostly worthless.
Prior to the event they try to forecast where a storm will occur. Their determination of a target area is based on their interpretation of model/surface data. Interpretation of data varies depending on the knowledge level of the individual and/or the model they are referencing. It’s no secret that weather enthusiasts want extreme weather to happen. If one model brings a system in stronger, that’s the model with which they will target, regardless if there is a better solution available.
(This said, I know several storm chaser types who can forecast circles around operational or journalistic Meteorologists - so choose your sources wisely when it comes to forecasting)
Post-event there are two types of social play. You have individuals who will Facebook and Tweet about what they are hearing on online rebroadcasts of scanner traffic from an area affected by adverse weather. Again we are back at interpretation of what is being broadcast, as each area has different disaster protocols and jargon.
The other type of social hound regurgitates information from sources they believe are authorities on the matter. This is a dangerous endeavor given one’s authoritative source might be just some clown hunched over a laptop wearing his fingers to a nub copying text from his/her own “authoritative” source. I guess what I’m saying is, until an official source releases information, no one is to be believed 100%. The “official source” subject is for a different blog on a different day, but you’re pretty safe with gov’t officials working the event. Yes, they’re slow to report but what they DO report is solid.
In a nutshell
I guess what I’m saying here is, if a tornado just went through an area and emergency response is underway, taking to social media to announce total injuries or even fatalities as quickly as one can, solely based upon interpretation, is not terribly responsible. It’s insensitive and, in most cases, incorrect information that’s being relayed.
Regarding insensitivity: If you have ever been in an area fresh with the smells of wood and natural gas with people screaming and scurrying around, completely unable to comprehend what happened, you will see my point.
Regarding incorrect information: Consider your sources. Gaining exposure that ultimately translates into more followers is a pitiful reason for trying to be first to the internet with information.
